Real Madrid have been in some strange form lately. Among all those matches against Barcelona, they managed to lose two home league games against Sporting Gijon and Real Zaragoza. With the El Clasicos out of the way and only the league to play for, they were back to a more fluent and  .....continue reading the full post »]]> Tuesday 9pm – Santiago Bernabéu

Real Madrid have been in some strange form lately. Among all those matches against Barcelona, they managed to lose two home league games against Sporting Gijon and Real Zaragoza. With the El Clasicos out of the way and only the league to play for, they were back to a more fluent and relaxed style last weekend in beating Sevilla 6-2.

Cristiano Ronaldo scored four in that game and will be gunning for more goals tonight to try to consolidate his lead in the top goalscorer chart.

Getafe are only one point above the relegation zone but they have poor away form and will be looking instead to their final two games against Osasuna and Real Sociedad for points to secure their safety. They’ve conceded two goals in all of their last five away games and I’d expect at least the same tonight.

Bet #25: Real Madrid -1 goal, 1pt @ 8/13 [Stan James, Totesport]

Malaga top the form table at the moment. Once in big danger of relegation, they’ve won their last four matches, scoring 11 goals in the process including a 3-0 away win at Atletico Madrid last Saturday. They’re unbeaten at home in two months and already beat Sporting Gijon 2-1 in the reverse  .....continue reading the full post »]]> Tuesday 8pm – La Roselada

Malaga top the form table at the moment. Once in big danger of relegation, they’ve won their last four matches, scoring 11 goals in the process including a 3-0 away win at Atletico Madrid last Saturday. They’re unbeaten at home in two months and already beat Sporting Gijon 2-1 in the reverse fixture in January.

Malaga currently sit on 42 points with three games remaining but will need one more win to be confident of avoiding relegation. Considering that their last two matches are against Athletic Bilbao and Barcelona, they will feel that tonight is their best opportunity of getting that win.

Sporting Gijon are one point ahead of Malaga in the league but have easier remaining fixtures (Racing Santander and Hercules). They have poor away form and will be happy to seek a draw tonight. They won’t make it easy for their opponents but the in-form Malaga should be too good for them.

Bet #24: Malaga to win, 1pt @ 8/11 [Betfred, Boylesports, Paddy Power, Totesport]

With Real Madrid’s season almost over, I was considering backing Sevilla to beat them this weekend but the home team have some important players with injury doubts so instead I’m going to bank on a goal-fest and not worry about which team is going to win.

Apart from their recent matches against  .....continue reading the full post »]]> Saturday 9pm – Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán

With Real Madrid’s season almost over, I was considering backing Sevilla to beat them this weekend but the home team have some important players with injury doubts so instead I’m going to bank on a goal-fest and not worry about which team is going to win.

Apart from their recent matches against Barcelona, Real Madrid’s last few games have had totals of 5 goals, 9 goals, 1 goal, 3 goals and 4 goals. With not much to play for and suffering a Champions League hangover, there could be a few changes to the team and a much more open style. They’ll certainly be more prone to conceding.

Sevilla’s last two home games have finished 3-2 and 3-1. They still have a small hope of making the top 4 and will fancy their chances of winning this match. Whatever happens, I can see goals at both ends and I’m going to split my stake between over 3.5 and over 4.5 goals.

Bet #23: Over 3.5 goals, 0.5pts @ 13/8 [Paddy Power] Over 4.5 goals, 0.5pts @ 4/1 [Boylesports]

13th place at home against 11th place with neither team safe from relegation yet. The home team will be the more worried about that scenario having lost five on the bounce, including losing their last two home matches against teams in the bottom three. Sociedad haven’t won in almost two months and  .....continue reading the full post »]]> Sunday 4pm – Estadio Anoeta

13th place at home against 11th place with neither team safe from relegation yet. The home team will be the more worried about that scenario having lost five on the bounce, including losing their last two home matches against teams in the bottom three. Sociedad haven’t won in almost two months and with some tough fixtures still to come (Barcelona, Valencia, Sevilla) are sure to continue being nervy and impotenet. They’re a team in freefall and shouldn’t be priced around even money for this or any match.

Sporting Gijon had a bad start to the league campaign but in the second half of the season their form is equivalent to a top 4 team. They have only lost one match in their last nine (away at Sevilla). That run includes draws against Barcelona, Valencia and Villarreal and a win at Real Madrid. Although they’ve won just two away games in the league, they’re playing in a confident manner and will see this as a good opportunity to gain another three points.

Bet #22: Sporting Gijon to win, 1pt @ 11/4 [Stan James]

Real Zaragoza are just outside the relegation zone and fighting hard for points. After a bad start to the season, their recent form is now that of a mid-table side. They only went down 1-0 at the Camp Nou last week and a few days previous they beat  .....continue reading the full post »]]> La Romareda – Saturday 9pm

Real Zaragoza are just outside the relegation zone and fighting hard for points. After a bad start to the season, their recent form is now that of a mid-table side. They only went down 1-0 at the Camp Nou last week and a few days previous they beat Athletic Bilbao 2-1. Since the turn of the year, their home form reads 4-1-1 from six matches.

Valencia are a quality team, third in the table and their away record is just as good as their home record. They’re in good recent form and generally only lose against other top teams. However they could be susceptible this weekend after the agony of being knocked out of the Champions League a few days ago. They dominated the match in Schalke and will be gutted to have lost. Some of their lesser league results this season have come off the back of a Champions League match, particularly tough away games.

Zaragoza held Valencia to a 1-1 draw at the Mestalla earlier in the season. This should be another close match but I think the odds available on a home win are a smidge of value.

Bet #21: Real Zaragoza to win, 1pt @ 21/10 [Coral]

Hercules on the road are terrible. Since that famous win against Barcelona early in the season, they haven’t won another away game and it has been months since they even scored an away goal. Although they haven’t conceded more than three goals in a match all season, a beating could be in  .....continue reading the full post »]]> Saturday 7pm – Santiago Bernabéu

Hercules on the road are terrible. Since that famous win against Barcelona early in the season, they haven’t won another away game and it has been months since they even scored an away goal. Although they haven’t conceded more than three goals in a match all season, a beating could be in store for them this weekend. A lot will depend on what type of team Real Madrid put out.

Madrid have a Champions League 2nd leg against Lyon next Wednesday, which is more important than this league match. Carvalho will definitely be rested and a couple of other regular starters might have bench roles. Whatever the team, it will still be a talented starting eleven and the players will want to impress to make sure they start against Lyon. Cristiano Ronaldo might be back from injury for that midweek game, so for the strikers playing on Saturday like Benzema and Adebayor, that means scoring as many goals as possible. Madrid’s last four home matches have finished 7-0, 2-0, 4-1, 2-0 and I expect a number of goals to be scored against Hercules.

Bet #20: Real Madrid -2 goals to win, 1pt @ 5/4 [Coral]

Although Mallorca have had a very good home record for the last three and a half seasons, this year they’ve lost 3 of their 11 home games in the league, as many as they did in the whole of last season. Two weeks ago, Sporting Gijon came to the island and won  .....continue reading the full post »]]> Monday 8pm – San Moix

Although Mallorca have had a very good home record for the last three and a half seasons, this year they’ve lost 3 of their 11 home games in the league, as many as they did in the whole of last season. Two weeks ago, Sporting Gijon came to the island and won 4-0. Overall, Mallorca have had a dip in form lately, gaining just one point and one goal from their last four matches. They face more tough opposition next Monday in Athletic Bilbao.

Bilbao are in 5th position and pushing for a Champions League place. Away from home, they’ve lost more than they’ve won but have hit some good form recently. They’ve won their last four in a row, conceding only one goal. They didn’t do much business in the January transfer window, which is a good thing because they held on to their top class players like Llorente and Javi Martinez. They’re a better team than Mallorca, in better form and yet a much bigger price.

Bet #19: Athletic Bilbao to win, 1pt @ 13/5 [Unibet]

I’m taking a rare sojourn to the English Premier League this weekend. This match is an important one in the relegation battle and a rematch of the Carling Cup semi-final tie. Birmingham qualified for the final there but only after extra-time and after West Ham had won the first leg 2-1. It  .....continue reading the full post »]]> Sunday 1:30pm – Boleyn Ground

I’m taking a rare sojourn to the English Premier League this weekend. This match is an important one in the relegation battle and a rematch of the Carling Cup semi-final tie. Birmingham qualified for the final there but only after extra-time and after West Ham had won the first leg 2-1. It was a closely fought match-up but West Ham were on top for large portions of both legs.

The teams previously met in the league last November at St Andrews where West Ham went 2-0 up only for Birmingham to come back and earn a 2-2 draw. West Ham are playing better now and can get some revenge by taking three points on Sunday.  They’ve won six of their last twelve in all competitions and brought in some new players during the transfer window who have already had a positive effect.

Birmingham have some crucial injuries which could weaken their team. Already without Scott Dann for the rest of the season, their other first choice centre back, Roger Johnson, will have a late fitness test. As too will Barry Ferguson and Cameron Jerome.  Birmingham have won only one league match in their last nine. That did come away from home but it was their only away win all season, apart from an FA Cup win at a lower league side.

West Ham will be really up for this match and look value at odds against.

Bet #18: West Ham to win, 1pt @ 11/10 [Paddy Power]

Sevilla are an inconsistent team that can put in very good performances or very bad ones. They don’t draw many matches. Even though they are favourites tonight, I hope and think that this game could be one of their poor showings.

Sevilla have a great recent record in the Copa del Rey. This year,  .....continue reading the full post »]]> Saturday 9pm – Riazor

Sevilla are an inconsistent team that can put in very good performances or very bad ones. They don’t draw many matches. Even though they are favourites tonight, I hope and think that this game could be one of their poor showings.

Sevilla have a great recent record in the Copa del Rey. This year, in the quarter-finals they had a tough draw against Villarreal but won 6-3 on aggregate. In between the two legs they lost a league match 2-1 at home to Espanyol. In the semi-finals of the cup, they’re against Real Madrid and put in a big effort in the first leg last Wednesday, going down 1-0. The second leg is next Wednesday and that will definitely be on the minds of the players and coach. Sevilla’s league form since the turn of the year has been good but they haven’t faced the strongest opposition in those matches and if they’re not 100% focussed for the trip north to Coruna, they could easily slip up against a team who don’t give much away.

Deportivo like to keep things tight and frustrate teams. They’ve kept five clean sheets in nine home matches but their main problem is scoring goals. Their recent form looks poor and they haven’t scored in their last three games but two of those were away and the home game was against Barcelona. Deportivo are currently in 13th position, four points above the relegation zone, and will be fighting for every point to secure their position in the Primera Liga, particularly in home matches. A couple of important players are due back from injury this weekend and if they play a part they can help Depor in being more of a goal threat.

At the current prices, Deportivo are worth a chance at causing an upset over Sevilla.

Bet #17: Deportivo La Coruna to win, 1pt @ 12/5 [Bet365]

Hercules are having a wonderful season. The small, newly promoted club lie in mid-table and have the accolade of being the only team to have beaten Barcelona in the league this season, which happened at the Camp Nou no less. (Amazingly Hercules’ only away win.) They’re on a run of  .....continue reading the full post »]]> Saturday 7pm – José Rico Pérez Stadium

Hercules are having a wonderful season. The small, newly promoted club lie in mid-table and have the accolade of being the only team to have beaten Barcelona in the league this season, which happened at the Camp Nou no less. (Amazingly Hercules’ only away win.) They’re on a run of four consecutive home wins and won’t lack for confidence when Barcelona come to town. However, that’s what can get you into the most trouble when you play against Barca.

While they wouldn’t say it publicly, revenge will be on the mind for Barcelona. Or at the very least, they won’t want to let the same embarrassment happen again. I think Guardiola will respect the opposition and resist temptation to rest many of his usual starting 11. However, waiting until the team line-ups are announced before placing a bet wouldn’t be a bad idea. Puyol is still injured but a central pairing of Pique and Abidal will do the job. The Catalan team have been in scintillating form lately and I can see them running up a big score in this match. I’m backing them to win by at least three goals.

Bet #16: Barcelona -2 goals to win, 1pt @ 5/4 [Bet365]